Tropical Storm / Hurricane Isaac – Update #3
We’re now a couple of days later, and Tropical Storm Isaac is bearing down on the Florida Keys.
Over the past 48 hours, Tropical Storm Isaac has drenched Haiti along with parts of the Dominican Republic and the southern Bahamas, causing some damage along with mudslides from the torrential rains. The tropical cyclone then passed close to Cuba and moved along the northern coast of the island nation, staying over the water most of the time.
Despite all of its time over warm water, Tropical Storm Isaac has only strengthened a little since we last examined the storm two days ago. The latest advisory by the National Hurricane Center of Miami, Florida, lists the storm’s maximum sustained winds to be only around 60 mph. Remember that a tropical cyclone needs to have winds of at least 74 mph to reach the strength of a hurricane.
As of an hour ago, Tropical Storm Isaac was about 50 miles to the south-southeast of Key West, Florida. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were still only about 60 mph. Right now Tropical Storm Isaac is tracking to the north-northwest at 18 mph.
Right now we know that Key West is about to be hit by the tropical storm. The area is currently under a hurricane warning although it’s doubtful that the island chain will actually receive hurricane conditions over the next 6-12 hours. After that it’s still a bit of a mystery as to where the storm will strike next.
Last night and earlier today it looked like Isaac was going to make landfall around Panama City and then head up here to the Atlanta area. When you look at the latest advisory by the National Hurricane Center, the official prediction has been shifted far to the west. Now it’s looking like Isaac may make landfall around the Biloxi, Mississippi area and then head into southern Mississippi and Louisiana.
There’s consensus amongst the computer models that Tropical Storm Isaac will continue on its path to the northwest for the next day. After that the models begin to split and make predictions of Isaac making landfall anywhere from Mobile, Alabama, to the Louisiana / Texas border. The NHC doesn’t offer much insight into the spread of data from the supposedly reliable computer models.
Tropical Storm Isaac is still forecast to become a hurricane at some point before making landfall. As to when that may occur, it’s still a bit of a mystery. Tropical Storm Isaac is starting to show some better organization, but it still lacks a well-defined eye. Despite that, Isaac is still showing signs of a well-defined upper-level outflow pattern, something critical for continued strengthening. So yes, Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to strengthen to a hurricane at some point in the near future.
As far as what’s going to happen next for Tropical Storm Isaac, it’s pretty much anybody’s guess at this point. The storm will probably become a hurricane before it makes landfall, but that spot of landfall is still a mystery. The problem here is that the landfall could still be a mystery 24-36 hours from now. This is going to require more people to make hurricane preparations and evacuations than may be necessary.
A HURRICANE WARNING currently exists for the following locations:
- The Florida Keys
- The west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef
- Florida Bay
A HURRICANE WATCH currently exists for the following location:
- The gulf coast from Indian Pass, Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana (includes New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain)
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING currently exists for the following locations:
- Northern Cuba
- Northwestern Bahamas
- The Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet to Ocean Reef
- The Florida west coast and panhandle from Indian Pass to Bonita Beach (includes Tampa Bay)
- Lake Okeechobee
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH currently exists for the following locations:
- Northern Cuba
- The Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach