Tropical Storm / Hurricane Isaac – Update #4
It’s been almost 48 hours since our last update, and Tropical Storm Isaac has finally strengthened enough to reach hurricane status.
Hurricane Isaac’s projected path has finally narrowed and there’s little discrepancy amongst the computer models. Yes, folks, Hurricane Isaac is taking aim at New Orleans, Louisiana. The city is once again being targeted by a tropical cyclone. At least this time the damage should be significantly smaller than when Hurricane Katrina struck the city back in 2005.
The latest advisory by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, places Hurricane Isaac about 55 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and roughly 135 miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana. Hurricane Isaac has winds measured at 75 mph, just strong enough to classify the tropical cyclone as a hurricane. Hurricane Isaac is currently tracking to the northwest at around 10 mph, though there was some reported wobble to the hurricane’s path.
The forecast is calling for Hurricane Isaac to make landfall is southeastern Louisiana and basically head north through Louisiana and Arkansas before turning to the northeast and crossing Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Places as far north as Detroit, Michigan and Cleveland, Ohio may be facing heavy rain and gusty winds associated from the remnants of Hurricane Isaac.
A mid-level area of dry air continues to inhibit the further strengthening of Hurricane Isaac. Despite the cyclone remaining over warm water in the Gulf of Mexico for the next 12-24 hours, it’s doubtful that the hurricane will strengthen any further than its current status. The official forecast from the NHC is hinting that surface winds may reach 80 mph before Hurricane Isaac makes landfall.
So what’s the threat from Hurricane Isaac? Is New Orleans going to suffer from another Katrina-like storm?
No, New Orleans is not going to have another Hurricane Katrina on its hands with Hurricane Isaac. Hurricane Isaac is a significantly weaker storm than Katrina. Despite the media’s best efforts to make a big deal about Hurricane Isaac and the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, there’s still a big difference in strength between those storms.
The biggest threat from Hurricane Isaac will be the flooding. Remember that much of the south and midwestern parts of the country have been suffering from a drought this summer. Once the rain begins to fall, the ground is going to have a very hard time absorbing it. Remember those recent news stories about how the Mississippi River is dangerously low in some spots? That’s not going to be a problem in the near future.
Take a look at the projected path of Hurricane Isaac. Virtually the entire inland area in the path of the storm drains into the Mississippi River in one way or another. Several days from now when the remains of the storm are in the Ohio Valley, there will still be a massive flow of water ultimately flowing into the Mississippi River and down to the Gulf of Mexico. It’s just a matter of ultimately how much water will be flowing down the river at peak times and if the levees will hold. Thankfully, the lower level of the river diminishes the threat of the river rising high enough to breach the levees.
Hurricane Isaac is a very large storm. Outer bands of rain stretch from Texas to northern Georgia and South Carolina. We’ve just experienced a bunch of rain associated with Hurricane Isaac here in the Atlanta metro area.
A HURRICANE WARNING is in place from Morgan City, Louisiana east to the Mississippi / Alabama border. This includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Biloxi, Mississippi. Hurricane watches extend a little further in each direction, and tropical storm warnings extend beyond that.