Tropical Storm Karen – Update #1
It’s been 36 hours since our initial look at Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf of Mexico.
As of the original posting, the tropical storm has moderately weakened.
The latest public advisory states that Tropical Storm Karen has maximum sustained winds of only 45 mph. Remember that for a tropical cyclone to be classified as a tropical storm, it must have 1-minute maximum sustained winds between 39-72 mph. So with the storm’s maximum sustained winds of only 45 mph, that means that the storm is barely strong enough to still be classified as a tropical storm. If the winds sink below the 39 mph mark then it will be downgraded into a tropical depression.
Tropical Storm Karen is currently located about 205 miles to the south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and about 230 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana. The storm is still moving to the north-northwest at about 7 mph, though it’s forecast to make a sharp turn to the east within the next 24-36 hours.
Right now there’s a general consensus amongst the computer models that Tropical Storm Karen is going to be making a turn to the east very soon. After that it’s anybody’s guess. Some of the models take the storm across the Florida panhandle and into southern Alabama and central Georgia, while other models take the storm as far north as Kentucky and as far south as souther Florida.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting Tropical Storm Karen to make a turn to the north and decrease its forward speed on Saturday. The storm is then expected to make a following turn to the northeast and then increase its forward speed on Sunday. While the maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph, there’s still a small chance that the storm may strengthen a little bit on Saturday.
This strengthening will be minimal, and right now it’s doubtful whether or not Tropical Storm Karen will still be packing tropical storm-force winds when it makes landfall on Sunday.
Obviously the winds are not going to be a major factor with this storm. This area of the country has experienced significantly stronger storms than Tropical Storm Karen. The biggest threat from this storm system will be intense rainfall and flooding, especially in the coastal areas.
The NHC is keeping its forecast path for Tropical Storm Karen slightly north of the computer models.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is currently in effect for: Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to the mouth of the Pearl River.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is currently in effect for: New Orleans, Louisiana; Lake Maurepas; Lake Ponchartrain; the area from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to Indian Pass, Florida.